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Prediction for CME (2024-05-20T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-20T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31055/-1
CME Note: Faint CME to the east. Its source could be a slow eruption in AR 3688 starting at 2024-05-20T18:36Z, with the dimming that somewhat enlarges the SE CH located to the south of this Active Region. The dimming is centered approximately at (S20-25E35). Possible arrival signature looks like a flank of a flux-rope, with slight rotations in the B-components. Note that the compression zone between the preceding ICME and this one may start as early as 2024-05-22T21:17Z (when the temperature and density begin to increase slightly).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-23T12:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-23T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31062/1
Model Inputs:
2024-05-20T20:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-38.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=836.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2024-05-20T23:41Z
2024-05-20T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-33.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=654.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2024-05-21T01:48Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-23T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240520_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 42.52 hour(s)
Difference: -10.12 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-05-21T18:22Z

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